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Episode 8: China Is the New OPEC
How Beijing Turns 6mbpd of Oil Demand On and Off
Aug 19
•
Alexander Stahel
13
2
3
Episode 7: The Saudi Oil Export Crash
The Great Detour, and Why West African Crude Still Isn't Filling the Gap
Aug 9
•
Alexander Stahel
21
3
Episode 6: Escape, Not Trade
2,143 crossings of Hormuz, and not one month of net vessel inflow. There is no round schedule to normalise commodity flows out of the Strait.
Jul 26
29
2
5
Episode 5: Running on Empty - The Russian Endgame Is Here to Stay
What happens inside Russia won't stay inside Russia
Jul 14
61
10
Episode 4: The Emperor Has No Clothes — A 65-Year Audit of OPEC
Why the UAE walked out, and why oil markets will barely notice
May 25
•
Alexander Stahel
23
1
4
Episode 3: The Fog of Peace
Is the Strait of Hormuz open, or is it not?
Apr 17
•
Alexander Stahel
23
1
1
Episode 2: Crude Quality Matters
Without a Fully Reopened Strait, Asia Lacks the Crude Needed for Distillates
Apr 14
50
2
6
Episode 1: The Persian Trap
Retaking the Strait of Hormuz Will Prove Difficult
Apr 12
57
1
6
A Crude Awakening: Executive Summary
Why re-opening the Strait is unavoidable and will take time. A multi-episode deep dive into oil balances, crude quality, vessel traffic, demand…
Apr 7
89
2
14
Maduro is Gone. Is that Good News? Not if you are long oil.
It's path dependent, but it should become a blessing for peace and humanity
Jan 3
103
40
13
Running on Fumes: How refinery strikes and Urals economics threaten Russia’s oil output - and its regime
A data-driven look at Russia’s oilfields and refineries—and the risks to tomorrow’s barrels
Oct 7, 2025
•
Alexander Stahel
30
2
8
The Paradox of Winning and Losing War and Peace
Lesson 7
Aug 23, 2025
•
Alexander Stahel
7
1
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