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A Crude Awakening: Executive Summary

Why re-opening the Strait is unavoidable and will take time. A multi-episode deep dive into oil balances, crude quality, vessel traffic, demand destruction and the high-stakes game of geopolitics.

Apr 07, 2026
∙ Paid
Cross-posted by The Commodity Compass
"I am sorry to send two emails in one day and fully understand the almost overwhelming influx of data and opinions which flood all our inboxes. However, the issues dealt with here by The Commodity Compass, supported by sound data, are worth you spending some time digesting over a coffee. It does not matter if you invest in the O&G sector or not, the impact of the American war of choice impacts everything. As an Agricultural Chemist with a background in Agribusiness, Banking and Development, I will divert my attention to the impact on the global food supply chain. There is also a lot of O&G nonsense out there on Substack and Twitter which often arise out of a fundamental lack of understanding of what we chemists call "the molecular mismatch". This will be much worse than you think."
- Alastair Kendall
High-Frequency Bidirectional Vessel Transit Count of the Strait of Hormuz; Blue Line: Tankers (Crude; Products; LNG; LPG; Chemical); White Line: Dry Cargo (Containers; Bulk; Others); Source: Bloomberg

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